Sunday, March 10, 2024

European banks in Russia



A banker is a professional who is responsible for managing the financial transactions of clients. Bankers provide financial advice to clients and help them with investments, loans, and other financial services. Bankers should have a good understanding of financial markets, banking regulations, and accounting principles. A few short weeks from now, we will be asked to place our trust in politicians at the ballot box. Sadly, this does not reflect a sudden surge in the popularity of the political parties. It has more to do with the fact that even those with the most sensitive political antennae are struggling to predict the outcome. As a result, people will believe that their vote is more likely to make a difference and, so the logic goes, be more eager to put their cross in the box. 

Bankers, like politicians, too often lose sight of their purpose. The crash exposed some ugly truths about the way some big banks and bankers gained an overweening sense of entitlement and, over many years, systematically and cynically abused their position and customers. The covenant of trust between banks and their customers was broken. Hubris had indeed led to nemesis.

EU banks still operating in Russia are squirming to show they're abandoning their ever-more toxic client — but actions speak louder than words. Some banks pulled out of Russia a long time ago, but a lot of people didn't and now they've been caught with their pants down. Austria's top lender, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), made €1.8bn in pre-tax profit in Russia last year. Following earlier briefings with German lenders, the US has threatened Austria's top bank with sanctions for doing business in Russia.

RBI is one of eight leading EU banks still in Russia. The others are Dutch lender ING, Germany's Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, Hungary's OTP Bank, Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit, and Sweden's SEB. The US Treasury warned Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) that it risked "being cut off from the US financial system" if it was helping to fund Russia's military.

OTP Bank, which used to be on Ukraine's Sponsors of War list, posted a 125 percent increase in its Russia profit in 2023, pocketing €242m. It has 82 retail branches in Russia and employs 2,018 people there. The US Treasury didn't reply if Morris might come knocking on OTP Bank's door in Budapest in the future. 

But US Treasury officials have also briefed German financiers on the new sanctions threat. Commerzbank does corporate banking for mostly German companies active in Russia. It doesn't disclose its Russian profit and employs about 130 people there. ING also does corporate banking in Russia, where its Moscow office employs some 270 people and manages €1.3bn of loans. The Dutch bank said it didn't feel at risk because it "complies with all international sanctions laws including UN, EU, and OFAC".

We trust people who are clear and open with us, with nothing to hide. In a similar vein, we trust people we can rely on, who dependably do what they say they will. We trust people who show they trust and respect us, and those prepared to act against their own self- or short-term interests on our behalf. Lastly, we respond to those whose values we share, who live by those values and don’t contradict them. Some are hoping that if they can keep their head down, the whole thing will blow over and they can have good business in Russia afterwards. Some are afraid of violating any Putin decree because they don’t want personal cases opened up against them. Some are just paralyzed by fear. These are not people who ever imagined, despite all the warnings, that they would be in the middle of this murderous war where they could get killed in the crossfire.


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Illegal immigration and mechanics of democratic government




This year, the US has an agenda that includes some of the upcoming elections in Croatia too. Immigration experts are raising the alarm about how the increasing flow of migrants illegally crossing into the U.S. may significantly impact states' representation in the House of Representatives and Electoral College.


Overall, according to the Federation for American Immigration Reform, there are an estimated 16.8 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. as of June 2023. Therefore, because every House seat represents 761,168 residents on average, the total number of illegal immigrants accounts for roughly 22 seats in the House.

The US presidential election takes place on 5 November. But it's possible the candidate with the most votes won't be the winner. This is because the president is not chosen directly by the voters, but by what's known as the electoral college. When Americans go to the polls in presidential elections they're actually voting for a group of officials who make up the electoral college.

The word "college" here simply refers to a group of people with a shared task. These people are electors and their job is to choose the president and vice-president. The electoral college meets every four years, a few weeks after election day, to carry out that task. The number of electors from each state is roughly in line with the size of its population. Each state gets as many electors as it has lawmakers in the US Congress (the House and Senate).

California has the most electors - 54 - while a handful of sparsely populated states like Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota (and Washington DC) have a minimum of three.





There are 538 electors in total. Each elector represents one electoral vote and a candidate needs to gain a majority of the votes - 270 or more - to win the presidency. Generally, states award all their electoral college votes to whoever won the poll of ordinary voters in the state. For example, if a candidate wins 50.1% of the vote in Texas, they are awarded all of the state's 40 electoral votes. Alternatively, a candidate could win by a landslide and still pick up the same number of electoral votes. It's therefore possible for a candidate to become president by winning a number of tight races in certain states, despite having fewer votes across the country.

There are only two states (Maine and Nebraska) that divide up their electoral college votes according to the proportion of votes each candidate receives. Most states consistently vote for the same party each election. This is why presidential candidates target specific "swing states" - states where the vote could go either way - rather than trying to win over as many voters as possible across the country. Every state they win gets them closer to the 270 electoral college votes they need.

It is possible for candidates to be the most popular candidate among voters nationally, but still fail to win enough states to gain 270 electoral votes. In 2016, Donald Trump had almost three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but won the presidency because the Electoral College gave him a majority. In 2000, George W Bush won with 271 electoral votes, although Democrat candidate Al Gore won the popular vote by more than half a million. Only three other presidents have been elected without winning the popular vote, all of them in the 19th Century: John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B Hayes, and Benjamin Harrison.

When the US Constitution was being drawn up in 1787, a national popular vote to elect a president was practically impossible (country size and tricky communications). So, the framers of the Constitution created the Electoral College, with each state choosing electors. Smaller states favored the system as it gave them more of a voice than a nationwide popular vote to decide the president.

The electoral college was also favored by southern states, where slaves made up a large portion of the population. Even though slaves didn't vote, they were counted in the US Census (as three-fifths of a person). Since the number of electoral votes was determined by the size of a state's population, southern states had more influence in electing a president than a direct public vote would have given them.

In some states, electors could vote for whichever candidate they prefer, regardless of who voters backed. But in practice, electors almost always vote for the candidate who wins the most votes in their state. If an elector votes against their state's presidential pick, they are termed "faithless". In 2016, seven Electoral College votes were cast this way, but no result has been changed by faithless electors. In some states, "faithless" electors can be liable for fines or prosecuted for their votes or abstaining.

In 2020, US voters became familiar with the concept of "fake electors" after pro-Trump Republicans in seven US states created their electors in a bid to overturn the election's results. In some cases, they created and signed official-looking documents or arrived at state capitals on 14 December - when electors across the country met to officially cast their votes. Some of those involved have faced prosecution and investigations are still ongoing. Federal prosecutors later described the effort as a "corrupt plan to subvert the federal government function by stopping Biden electors' votes from being counted and certified".

Shortly after taking office in January 2021, President Biden signed an executive order requiring the U.S. Census Bureau to factor in all residents, including noncitizens, as part of its decennial calculation of the U.S. population. As a result, the apportionment of House seats and, therefore, electoral votes for presidential elections, could be swayed as migrants continue to pour over the southern border.

Illegal immigration has all kinds of effects and among them is that it distorts the mechanics of democratic government, so their inclusion in the census count for purposes of apportionment is outrageous.

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Super Bowl Stadium Powered by Renewable Energy

 



Nevada gets 23% of its energy from solar and 37% of its energy from all renewable sources combined, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Rapidly shifting from fossil fuels to renewable sources is one key step in avoiding the worst effects of human-caused climate change.

Who doesn't love a good rematch? Sunday brings us a matchup of the NFL's most consistently dominant teams over the past five seasons, each of whom has something to accomplish with a victory.

When the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers face off in Las Vegas this Sunday, they'll be doing so under lights powered by renewable energy. This year's Super Bowl host, Allegiant Stadium gets 100% of its power from renewable sources.

Allegiant Stadium is a domed multi-purpose stadium located in Paradise, Nevada, southwest of adjacent Las Vegas. Opened in 2020, it is the home field of the Las Vegas Raiders of the National Football League (NFL) and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) Rebels college football team. The stadium also hosts the Vegas Kickoff Classic in early September and the Las Vegas Bowl in December. The stadium will host Super Bowl LVIII.

The stadium has a roll-in natural Bermuda grass field similar to the one at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, which is primarily used for NFL games. The main advantages of such a configuration is that it allows the natural playing surface to be exposed to natural sunlight when not in use and allows other events to be held at the facility without any risk of damage to the grass. Unlike the Arizona facility (which does not have a varsity tenant) Allegiant Stadium also has an artificial turf field, which is primarily used for college football games. This design was chosen because UNLV prefers to play on an artificial turf surface, and also due to concerns that the use of the grass field by two teams would cause excessive wear to the playing surface. The artificial turf is placed directly on the stadium's concrete floor and is rolled up and stored under the stadium when the tray is rolled in. 

There are 2,700 parking spots surrounding the stadium and 6,000 in proximity to it. More than 35,000 parking spaces are located within a mile of Allegiant Stadium.



According to a press release from the Las Vegas Raiders, the stadium's main tenant, the stadium achieved that milestone in October. The team and the stadium's website don't spell out what renewable sources helped them achieve that goal, but more recent reporting says a big chunk of it comes from a Nevada-based solar installation. The Las Vegas Raiders have agreed to purchase power from the solar farm for 25 years, CBS reported.

Big-time sporting events at major stadiums are energy-hungry affairs. A stadium can require 5-10 megawatts of electricity during an event like an NFL game, enough to power around 5,000 homes. Covering that demand is certainly a step in the direction of sustainability.

But an event like the Super Bowl has a footprint that expands beyond the stadium's walls. While electric power generated from fossil fuels is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, transportation is the largest and accounts for 28% of US emissions, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Air travel to and from the game is part of an aviation industry that accounts for 2% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency.

A win for the Chiefs would confirm them as a dynasty. The list of teams to win three Super Bowls in five years isn't long. the mid-1970s "Steel Curtain" Steelers, the mid-1990s Cowboys built by Jimmy Johnson, the Patriots with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick managed to pull it off twice in two different decades. That's it. A victory would put the Chiefs among the greatest five-year runs in league history, full stop.

The 49ers might believe they would be the dynasty if a few things had broken their way. They led the Chiefs by 10 points with seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV, only for Patrick Mahomes to carry Kansas City back. In the 2021 NFC title game, the Niners had a 10-point lead on the Rams to start the fourth quarter, but Jaquiski Tartt dropped an arm punt and the offense went cold at the wrong time. In the 2022 NFC title game, down to their third-string quarterback in rookie sensation Brock Purdy, the 49ers went into Philadelphia and lost Purdy to a serious elbow injury in the first quarter, which led to a 31-7 rout.

Five months ago, the season began with a Chiefs loss. Will it end with one? Who doesn't love a good rematch? 


Thursday, February 1, 2024

Digresija o mentalnom zdravlju moje nacije




Prošlo je 180 godina od povijesnog govora Ivana Kukuljevića Sakcinskog na hrvatskom jeziku. Hrvatski političar, povjesničar i književnik bio je jedan od nositelja ilirskog pokreta, hrvatskog nacionalnog preporoda. Zalagao se za uvođenje hrvatskoga jezika umjesto latinskog kao službenoga te je bio prvi zastupnik koji je na materinskom jeziku progovorio u Hrvatskom saboru 2. svibnja 1843. godine. 


Mentalna higijena polazi od pretpostavke kako socijalna sredina utječe na mentalno zdravlje. Mentalna higijena (psihohigijena), granično je područje kliničke psihologije koje se bavi sprječavanjem psihičkih poremećaja i očuvanjem duševnoga zdravlja. Proučava čimbenike koji održavaju mentalno zdravlje i mjere kojima se ono poboljšava, potiče dobro osjećanje i volja za životom, te otklanjaju i izbjegavaju čimbenici koji dovode do psihičkih bolesti ili pogoršavaju duševnu kvalitetu života.


180 godina kasnije, prema podacima sa stranica hrvatskog Sabora, protiv zakona kojim se potvrđuje da je hrvatski jezik službeni jezik u Hrvatskoj i jedan od službenih jezika Europske unije, kao i to da je u svojoj ukupnosti i cjelovitosti temeljna sastavnica hrvatskog identiteta i hrvatske kulture. glasali su zastupnici Mirela Ahmetović, Barbara Antolić Vupora, Boška Ban Vlahek, Arsen Bauk, Erik Fabijanić, Sabina Glasovac, Peđa Grbin, Branko Grčić, Siniša Hajdaš Dončić, Mišel Jakšić, Boris Lalovac, Andreja Marić, Anka Mrak-Taritaš, Dalija Orešković, Katarina Peović, Marijana Puljak i Martina Vlašić Iljkić. Suzdržani su bili Domagoj Hajduković, Marin Lerotić, Vesna Nađ, Željko Pavić, Ivana Posavec Krivec, Sanja Udović, Davorko Vidović, Franko Vidović i Nikšta Vukas. Za provedbu zakona glasalo je 95 zastupnika, uz ovih 17 protiv, bilo je tu i 10 suzdržanih.

Mentalna higijena usmjerena je na uklanjanje patogenih čimbenika koji štete duševnomu zdravlju pojedinca i zajednice, te na poboljšanje zdravlja, u čem nalazi veze sa životom i praksom, povezujući se s kulturnim utjecajima, prosvjetom, ekonomijom, zdravstvom, urbanizacijom, a ulazi i u područje ekologije te, u širem smislu, antropologije. To je povezivanje interdisciplinarno, proizlazi iz shvaćanja da je zdravlje stanje fizičkoga i emocionalnoga dobrog osjećanja i da stvaranje uvjeta za dobro osjećanje poboljšava mentalno zdravlje. 

Primjer 1. 

Ivan Kukuljević Sakcinski Hrvatskom saboru 2. svibnja 1843.


Preuzvišeni Gospodine Grofe i Bane, Presvetli Velmože! Slavni stališi i redovi!

Kao što svaki pravi Harvat i Slavonac, tako sam i ja s velikom zaisto radostju i unutrašnjim uzhitjenjem razumio, da slavni stališi i redovi ovih kraljevinah žele: podignutje katedrah za narodni naš jezik i literaturu, (kako ja mislim) ne samo u Akademii nego u celom Distriktu Akademie Zagrebačke čim bez dvojbe to steći žele, da svi izobraženii stanovnici kraljevinah naših svoj maternji jezik dobro i izvarstno nauče. Nu, pitam ja s poniznim dopuštenjem: na kakovu će korist i svarhu biti učenje našega jezika kakovim uspehom kakovom posledicom kakovim trudom učit će ga stanovnici domovine naše, ako sa znanjem njegovim nikada nikakovo dobro skopčano nebude; ako po njem nitko ništa zaslužiti si nebude mogao; i ako mi nikad niti pomisliti nećemo, da ga u javni život uvedemo Zaisto će on bez toga, kao i do sada ostati u tmini, šnjim će se zabavljati samo oni, koji baš za to vremena imali budu, u ostalom neće ga opet veća strana naroda znati, a oni, koji se javnim životom bave, i koji su u javnih službah stavljeni sasvim će ga zanemariti kao i do sada; podignutje pako naših katedrah i učionah neće na drugo služiti, nego na zasleplenje domorodacah i tudjinah.


Znam ja, da mi kako smo ovde sakupljeni s veće strani naš jezik dobro neznamo, i da se u celoj našoj domovini osobe obadvojeg spola, koje u svom maternjim jeziku dobro govoriti, čitati i pisati znadu, lahko na parste prebrojiti bi mogle; a šta je tomu uzrok nego to: da ga mi u javnom životu i poslovih nigde neupotrebljavamo, i š njim se samo tako zabavljamo, kao gizdavi gospodar svojim plaćenim slugom.


Još nezna veća strana naroda našega, kakova je to višnja slast i milina svojim prirodjenim materinskim jezikom govoriti moći i smeti, to samo on iskreno ćutiti može, koj je duže vremena medju tudjemi narodi u tudjih daržavah stanovati i živiti morao. Mi naš jezik čuvamo još uvek samo za družinu i za naše kmetove. U občinski život i u poslove uveli smo u onih još barbarskih vremenah, kad su na celom svetu jedini jezik latinski za izobraženi i izdelani daržali, taj jezik; u družtveni život i familiu našu uvuko se je s vremenom jezik nemački i promenio našu prirodjenu narav i način mišljenja otacah naših; u Primorju pako učinio je isto jezik talianski. Šta smo mi stigli po tom, nego to: da smo se odtudjili sami sebi, da smo se odcepili od susedne jednorodne bratje naše, i da mnogi od naroda našega niti neznaju od kojega su naroda i koji puci po rodu, po karvi, i po jeziku k nama spadaju!!!


Mi gledamo svaki dan, kako domovina naša sve dublje i dublje propada, kao imanje one detce, koja pod više tutorah stoje, svaki od ovih tutorah stavi si nešta u žep, svaki si nešta prisvoji, najposle neće ostati detci ništa.


Mi smo malo Latini, malo Nemci, malo Taliani malo Magjari i malo Slavjani a ukupno (iskreno govoreći) nismo baš ništa! Martvi jezik rimski, a živi magjarski, nemački i latinski –  to su naši tutori, živi nam groze, martvi darži nas za garlo, duši nas, i nemoćne nas vodi i predaje živima u ruke. Sada imamo još toliko sile u nami suprotstaviti se martvomu, za mala nećemo moći nadvladati žive, ako se čvarsto na naše noge ne stavimo, to jest, ako naš jezik u domovini neutvardimo i njega vladajućim neučinimo. Susedi naši, osobito Magjari, neće već odstupljivati od svojega jezika, i iz priateljstva i uljudnosti prema nas ili iz drugoga kakvoga uzroka, neće ga zaista zamenjivati s ikojim drugim najmanje martvim, nu to i potrebovati hoteti od njih, bi značilo toliko: kao orlu hoteti svezati krila, da k nebu nepoleti; njihova stalnost i jedinost u jeziku nadvladati će zaisto našu nestalnost, neslogu i mešariu.


Tko može jednomu narodu zabraniti, da svojim prirodjenim jezikom govori...


Čuli smo mi jučer preuzvišenu gospodu Bana i Biskupa pred sakupljenimi slavnimi stališi i redovi ovih kraljevinah izjaviti se, da ćedu oni u velikom saboru ugarskom i magjarski govoriti, ako time stvari i domovini našoj hasniti budu mogli, mi se nismo protivili tomu, niti se protiviti želimo; nama je drago da su i preuzvišena ta gospoda toga mnenja, da Harvati i Slavonci u javnom životu nemoraju uvek kod jezika latinskog ostati, i njihova misao veseli nas zaisto tim više, budući da se ufati i nadati možemo, da oni s vremenom u Harvatskoj i Slavonii k Harvatom i Slavoncem harvatskoslavonski će govoriti, ako bude jedanput naš jezik u javni život uveden. 


Nu čitam ja u očiuh od mnogih ovde nazočnih tu misao: da mi to dopuštenje, da se naš materinski jezik u javni život i u poslove uvede, nikad i nikad zadobiti nećemo! A ja pitam slobodnim duhom: tko može celomu jednomu narodu, ako je taj i Bog zna, kako malen, nu ako istinitu i krepku volju ima, zabraniti, da svojim prirodjenim jezikom govori, da ga na parvo mesto stavi, i po tom narodnost svoju digne, tko može i srne slobodnomu narodu, kao što su konštitucialni Harvati i Slavonci, to zaprečiti. Ima li sile na svetu, koja ono, što Bog komu poda, uze ti sme ili pako, kojoj stvari drugo opredeljenje podati, nego joj ga Bog poda, a na što su jezici narodah odlučeni, to će svaki izmedju nas znati, ja mislim na taj cilj najviše, da se š njima narodi od drugih odlikuju, da se š njima služe, i da svaki narod svoj jezik nad svimi drugimi štuje, ljubi i uzvisuje. Vodimo dakle i mi već naš jezik k njegovomu cilju, i daržimo se u tom primera ostalih narodah europejskih koji svi martvi jezik s živimi zameniše, i po tom k narodnomu svo¬jemu razvitju najviše doprinesoše; pogledajmo samo na susedne puke, koji s nama pod jednim žezlom austrianskim stoje, svaki od njih Nemac, Talian i Magjar postavio je svoj jezik na parvo mesto, samo mi ponizni i krotki Slavjani, kojih u Carstvu 17 milionah ima, samo mi plašljivi Harvati i Slavonci, koji u domovini našoj s nikakvimi drugimi puci smešani nismo, bo¬jimo se našega jezika, volimo služit tudjemu, tudjoj volji, i činimo samo ono, što se drugim lepo i krasno vidi, i što je drugim hasnovito.


Ili je možebiti jezik slavnih predjah naših od providnosti nebeske, ili od kakvog prokletstva na to osudjen da uvek u robstvu i kod prostog puka prebiva da uvek u blatu kopa i da nikad u visinu poletiti nesme. Kuda toliki drugi jezici od našega manje mili i sladki, manje bogati i izdelani, manje krepki i silni, kroz toliko vekovah već lete i uzdaržavaju se. Pitam ja sve izkrene Harvate i Slavonce: što im na to sarce veli. Je da li je naš jezik, jezik najprostranii i najdalje razšireni u celom svetu, za večnu tminu, ili za jasnu bistru svetlinu stvoren ako je za parvo odhitimo ga onda, što hitrie za na veke u vekoviti grob! zaboravimo ga sasvime, nepodižimo nikakovih učionah i katedrah za njega, nego ogarlimo sa svom silom parvi živi, koj nam se nudi, bio taj aziatski ili europejski; možebiti da ćemo šnjime barem u tudjem kipu sretnii postati ali ako je za svetlost stvoren, a tko bi o tom i dvojio, moramo ga čistiti od svake tmine, koja ga sad još krije, moramo se samo za njega skarbiti, samo š njim najviše zabavljati se, i kao majka dete svoje nad svimi drugimi stvari ljubiti ga! On nam mora biti parvi sarcu našemu, on mora biti parvi i duhu našemu! Š njim i po njem moramo nesretnu našu domovinu i nesretni naš narod sretnimi učiniti! U njem neka nam se zakon daje i razglašuje, on neka bude trublja od buduće naše sreće i slave!


Mi smo potomci onih predjah koji su u staro vreme maternji svoj jezik na toliko ljubili, da su ga već u 9. stoletju izpovednici tako vere katoličke kao i garčke u istu carkvu uveli i njega time u svetu s najstariim garčkim i latinskim usporedili, a u domovini svojoj nad njimi ga uzvisili; mnogo ih je to truda stalo, nu oni su stalnostju svojom sve teškoće nadvladali, i još sada se velika strana našega naroda s njime u carkvi služi! Mi smo sini majke slave, koja je svojom detcom sav svet oplodila i koja samo zato tako duboko u tmini i potlačena leže, jer im je jezik potlačen; pokažimo dakle da smo vredni biti potomcima takovih predjah, da smo vredni sinovi takove majke, i da ono, što nas i jezik naš tlači, razdrobiti želimo, hoćemo, i možemo!!!


Ko svoj može biti, tudj neka ne bude...


Naš narod proslavio se je mnogo putah u Istorii junačtvom, smionstvom i postojanstvom, pomislimo samo na vremena Alexandra velikoga maćedonskoga, na slavne domaće naše vladare Ograna, Dušana i Krešimira, na branitelje od Metulja i Siska, na boj Grobnički, na rat sedmoi tridesetoletni, te na najnovii francuzki; u sva ta bojna vremena proslavio se je naš narod telesnom silom, i nadvladao puke kopjem u ruci, ali sada je nastalo 19. izobraženo stoletje, u kojem se puci duhom i umom medju sobom bore, trebalo bi dakle, da ih i time nadvladamo ili barem da se s njimi usporedimo, nu kako ćemo to učiniti, kad je duh naroda našeg, narodni naš jezik, u lancih, i kad se potlačen svagde tudjemu klanjati mora; radimo dakle složno i krepko, da se barem u domovini njemu drugi već jedared klanjali budu. 


Nemojmo se u tom obziru strašiti svake sene, koja nam grozi; nemojmo se bojati, da ćemo po tom ustav naš ili konštituciu našu i municipalna prava naša izgubiti, ona će time samo bolje ustanoviti i utvarditi se; nesvadjajmo se u domovini našoj kao bratja radi jedne stvari, koja nam svim jednako draga, jednako sveta biti mora, nego čuvajmo hrabro i bratski ono do zadnje kaplje karvi, što je naše; samo tako možemo u Harvatskoj i Slavonskoj ostati Harvati i Slavonci, a u svetu slobodni, nezavisni narod. Nemislimo, da jezik naš nije jošte prikladan zato, da ga u javne poslove uvedemo: ta on je bio prie 800 godinah jezik diplomatički harvatskih i sarbskih kraljevah, a kasnie i turskoga carstva, on je tako bogat, tako izdelan, tako blagozvučan, kao što je malo samo jezikah na svetu; on poseduje u ostalih slavjanskih narečjih neizcarpivo blago: zašto bi dakle bojali se i oklevali uvesti ga u javni život; zašto bi se bojali reći, da mi želimo, da nam se zakoni i zapovedi pišu u krasnom našem materinskom jeziku, kad se to nisu plašili učiniti drugi narodi, ko jim je jezik mnogo surovii i siromašnii "Ko svoj može biti, tudj neka ne bude!" 


Carni oblaci puni dažda i grada vise nad nami i domovinom našom, silne velike vode obkoljivaju nas od svih stranah, i groze nam strašnom poplavicom, kako se možemo mi od nje osloboditi, nego ako jame i kanale kopali budemo, po kojih se vode odcede, i ako tvardi most sagradili budemo, po kojem ćemo na suhom preko njih projti i od svake pogibelji izbaviti se; taj most je naš materinski jezik! Ako smo ga doma ustanovili, utvardili i podigli, neimamo se već strašiti ništa od nijedne strane od njedne stvari!!!


Na koncu činim pozorne stališe i redove tih kraljevinah, da nisam od one u galop tarčeće stranke, koja odmah i taki sve i sva steći želi; poznam ja dobro one velike predsude, onaj mali obškurantizam, i onu neizmemu nemarnost, koja u domovini našoj vladaju, i koja čine, da se sve tudje domaćemu i svaki tudji jezik materinskomu predpostavlja, zato sam ja samo toga mnenja, da bi slavni stališi i redovi na to jedankrat već misliti počeli, kako da svoj jezik tudjemu predpostave, i njega u javni život uvedu, i da se u molbi za podignutje katedrah narodnoga jezika ta klauzula prida, da mi te katedre zato molimo; budući da mislimo svremenom naš jezik polag primera drugih europejskih narodah u javni život i u poslove uvesti, i martvi živim zameniti; jer ako mi na to nikada niti pomisliti nećemo ostat ćemo kao i do sada ne narod nego sena naroda, a u Europi medju narodi, koji se svi živimi jezici služe, kao zapušteni mali otok na moru, i umreti ćemo zaista prie ili posle s martvim jezikom i mi, i to umreti kao onaj čovek, koi u celom svojem živlenju za uzdaržanje svog života baš ništa radio nije!!!


Ivan Kukuljević Sakcinski (1816.-1848.)

Primjer 2. 

Na početku Domovinskoga rata, 30. kolovoza 1991., Vlado Gotovac održao je govor pred tadašnjim Zapovjedništvom 5. vojne oblasti u Zagrebu. Obratio se u tom trenutku generalima JNA koji su se još nalazili u zgradi Zapovjedništva, majkama koje su se okupile sa zahtjevom da se njihovi sinovi, koji su u jugoslavensku vojsku otišli služiti vojni rok prije početka rata, puste svojim kućama i, naposljetku, obratio se hrvatskomu narodu – kako onda, tako i danas:


»Oni imaju obraza da, zaposjevši sve naše svete građevine, naše zadužbine, govore o svom posjedu u Hrvatskoj! Oni nam prijete da će na odlasku sve uzeti, sve odnijeti. Oni nam kažu da će iza sebe ostaviti samo pustoš. Pa mi znamo da će otići jedino s onim što će ukrasti jer nikada ništa drugo nisu ni imali. (…) Oni će, prijete, uzeti sve. A pitam ja tu gospodu: gdje su i čime su stekli pravo na bogatstvo koje je Hrvatska stjecala tisuću godina? Koji su njihovi gradovi? Koji su njihovi dvorci? Koje su njihove palače? Neka slobodno uzmu sve što je njihovo. A mi dobro znamo da oni ništa nemaju! Oni se ne boje uništavanja jer se njima nema što uništiti! (…) Mi imamo svoje gradove, mi imamo svoju kulturu, mi imamo svoju domovinu, svoju naciju. Neka nas puste na miru!«

Vladimir "Vlado" Gotovac (Imotski, 18. rujna 1930. – Rim, 7. prosinca 2000.), hrvatski pjesnik, esejist, filozof, disident i političar.

Taj Gotovčev govor smatra se biserom u povijesti hrvatskoga govorništva i bilo bi ga poželjno promatrati i analizirati u kontekstu trenutka u kojem je izgovoren. Stoga je neshvatljivo i civilizacijski poražavajuće kada jedan takav govor nakon više od 30 godina od svoga nastanka i nakon više od četvrt stoljeća od završetka Domovinskoga rata može tako precizno i tako jasno opisivati sadašnji trenutak u kojem ni Jugoslavije, ni Komande, ni generala u njoj više nema, ali je zato ostala ta, očito, vječna potreba posezanja za onim što pripada drugomu. 

Za kraj, obveznici službene uporabe hrvatskoga jezika su tijela državne vlasti, tijela državne uprave, tijela jedinica lokalne i područne (regionalne) samouprave i pravne osobe koje imaju javne ovlasti, odnosno sva javnopravna tijela u Hrvatskoj. Zakon o hrvatskom jeziku važan je korak u isticanju vrijednosti i očuvanju bogatstva hrvatskog jezika u njegovoj punini i raznovrsnosti, bilo da je riječ o hrvatskom standardnom jeziku ili o hrvatskim narječjima (čakavsko, kajkavsko i štokavsko). Hrvatski je jezik u svojoj ukupnosti jedna od temeljnih sastavnica hrvatskog nacionalnog identiteta i hrvatske kulture. On je nematerijalno kulturno dobro i dragocjeno naslijeđe koje pripada svima nama. Stoga se o njemu hrvatska država dužna skrbiti onako kako to rade najbolje uređene države koje drže do svoje kulture. Ovo je bilo malo poduža digresija. Toliko i hvala. 

Sunday, January 28, 2024

John Titor's scary vision for the US future



"Greetings," Titor wrote in November of 2000 on an obscure site called the Time Travel Institute Forum. "I am a time traveler from the year 2036." Over the next four months, Titor described life in 2036. Gave us a glimpse into our future. The most immediate of Titor's predictions foretold a civil war in the United States having to do with "order and rights". As a result, the United States would split into five regions based on a variety of factors, including differing military objectives. That story is the kind of piece that can take you down an Internet wormhole that you emerge from and say "Did I really just spend two days on that?"


Now multiply that by 10 and back to 2024. Large groups of concerned Americans are traveling toward the southern border to demand action from the Biden administration to fix the "wide open" flood of illegal migrants. A clash between Texas and the Biden administration over who controls the Texas-Mexico border continues to escalate this week as federal officials once again demanded the state give Border Patrol agents access to a park that is a popular corridor for migrants to enter the United States illegally.

 

"We the People are resolute to stand to send a peaceful, lawful, and clear message to all city, state, and federal politicians and immigration enforcement officials who are enabling tens of thousands of illegal entrants, criminals, and known terrorists from over 160 countries worldwide to cross daily into our country along our southern border!" the press release said. 


The current stand-off has sparked fears among right-wing circles that President Joe Biden could try to federalize the National Guard, and the troops could be forced to choose between loyalty to the state and their country. The Texas National Guard is technically part of the US military, which ultimately reports to the president, but they take orders from the state governors except in exceptional circumstances.


The Supreme Court this week sided with the administration when it granted an emergency appeal to allow agents to keep cutting border wire set up by Texas after a lower court had blocked such moves. However, Border Patrol currently has "no plans" to remove the wire unless in an emergency. Gov. Greg Abbott says ten other states have sent the National Guard to the Texas border, and others will follow. Abbott says he is “prepared” for a conflict with federal authorities.


Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene called for a "national divorce" between red and blue states amid the escalating standoff over migration at the Texas border. Twenty-five Republican governors released a joint statement in support of Abbott on Thursday, praising him for "stepping up to protect American citizens from historic levels of illegal immigrants, deadly drugs like fentanyl, and terrorists entering our country." The dispute has inflamed loose talk of civil war and resistance from conservative media and politicians. 


The clause of the Constitution that Abbott references provides that “no State shall ... engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.” One thing that immediately stands out after reading this language is that it does not authorize any state to do anything. Rather, this clause is a prohibition on certain state actions; it forbids states from waging “War” except in limited circumstances. It is very odd to read a provision of the Constitution that limits state power as giving a state the power to violate federal law. Texas’ border stance challenges the federal government’s authority and goes against historical precedent. It is essential to ensure that the Constitution’s principles are upheld and that the rule of law is respected as the situation unfolds. 

John Titor, so far, withstands the test of time. 

Monday, January 15, 2024

US Building Energy Codes Program



The Building Technologies Office (BTO) supports the development and implementation of residential and commercial building energy codes by engaging with government and industry stakeholders, and by providing technical assistance for code development, adoption, and compliance. Through advancing building codes, we aim to improve building energy efficiency and to help states achieve maximum savings. For more information, visit energycodes.gov.

A few months ago, we discussed what building energy codes are, and more recently we looked at how they are developed and what role the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plays in that process. Today, we are going to take a look into the next step—how codes are adopted.




The Building Energy Codes Program

Assesses the savings impacts of model energy codes, calculating energy, cost, and carbon savings

Coordinates with key stakeholders to improve model energy codes, including architects, engineers, builders, code officials, and a variety of other energy professionals

Reviews published codes to ensure increased energy savings, such as the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) and Standard 90.1

Tracks the status of energy code adoption across the U.S. and provides technical assistance to states implementing updated codes

Provides a variety of educational and training resources and assists states working to measure and improve code compliance

Administers a Help Desk to assist individual code users with questions about energy codes.





First, here are a few key points:

Building codes are state laws. The U.S. does not have a national building code or energy code; instead, states or local governments can choose to adopt one of the national model energy codes, a modified version of the model code, or their own state-specific code.

Energy codes are just one of many building codes, such as fire, electrical, structural, or plumbing.




Energy codes are different than appliance and equipment standards. Energy codes cover the building itself—for example, the walls/floors/ceiling insulation, windows, air leakage, and duct leakage. Appliance and equipment standards cover the things that go into the buildings. However, there is some overlap, particularly in lighting.

Now, here are the three key primary components of the energy codes process and DOE’s role within them. It’s important to know that DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program is statutorily directed to participate in each of these phases.


1. CODE DEVELOPMENT

How it works: National model energy codes are developed by two private organizations, ASHRAE and the International Codes Council. ASHRAE develops the model commercial energy code, known as 90.1. The International Code Council developed the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC), which contains chapters for both residential and commercial buildings. Any interested party can participate in the development processes by submitting proposals to change the code and commenting on others’ proposals. The code cycle is continuous, with new codes being developed every three years. Final versions of each new edition are determined by a vote of the 90.1 committee members for ASHRAE and by the International Code Council membership for the IECC.


DOE’s role: DOE participates in both the ASHRAE and ICC development processes, but has no special status. DOE develops and submits code change proposals that strive to make cost-effective, energy-efficient upgrades to current model codes. After each new model code is published, DOE also must determine if the new version saves energy relative to the old version.


2. CODE ADOPTION

How it works: Most codes are adopted at the state level, though, in about 10 states they are adopted by cities. State adoption can occur directly by legislative action, or through regulatory agencies authorized by the legislature. Cities adopt codes through their mayors, councils, or committees depending on their form of government. Once adopted, the code becomes law within a particular state or local jurisdiction.


DOE’s role: DOE provides technical assistance to state and local governments to support their adoption processes. DOE responds to state and local requests and it also develops customized reports for every state detailing the benefits of upgrading to the current model codes. To ensure that its information is used effectively, DOE works with the Regional Energy Efficiency Organizations (REEOs) and the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) who have connections in almost every state and often participate directly in the adoption processes. DOE support also includes tracking state adoption status, coordinating activities among stakeholders, and technical analysis.


3. CODE COMPLIANCE

How it works: The key to realizing the full savings potential of building energy codes is by ensuring that builders are complying with them. Design and construction professionals are most likely to comply with the code when they are given education and training, particularly after a new code is adopted. Enforcement is almost always done by building permit office staff at the local (city) level who typically review plans first to ensure they are compliant and then conduct field inspections to verify that the plans are being followed during construction.


DOE’s role: DOE develops and regularly updates software (REScheck and COMcheck) to simplify and clarify compliance with model energy codes and standards, as well as a number of state-specific energy codes. DOE also develops education and training materials that are available free and used by governments, organizations, and trainers across the country.




DOE has also developed an affordable methodology for states and cities to determine energy and dollar savings opportunities associated with increased energy code compliance in single-family homes. Field studies based on the methodology have already been implemented in nine states with more underway. The data that comes from these studies helps focus education and training programs and provides a basis for utilities and states to determine whether such programs will be cost-effective. DOE is currently developing a parallel methodology for the commercial sector.

Building energy codes set minimum energy efficiency levels, but those savings are never realized unless states and localities actually adopt them. State adoption usually occurs through either legislative action or through regulatory agency actions. In some states, codes are adopted by local governments (“home rule”), generally through an action of the city or county. In all cases, once the code is adopted, it becomes law within the adopting jurisdiction. While adoption procedures are set by individual states, federal statute provides specific timelines for states to review and/or update their energy codes (based on the model codes), and to submit code adoption certifications to DOE. 

There are almost as many ways to adopt a code as there are states, but the following sections describe processes most commonly used around the country.



FEDERAL GUIDANCE

How it Works: Federal statute directs DOE to review each newly published edition of the model energy codes and to issue a determination as to whether the updated codes would result in increased energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings. When a code results in increased energy efficiency (based on DOE’s review), the statute then requires states to review and/or update their building energy codes based on the new model codes. States are given two years to accomplish this process and certify their new code based on the updated model code. 

STATE GOVERNMENTS

Legislative Actions: A legislature can adopt a new energy code by title (e.g. the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code) or, more commonly, by directing either a one-time administrative action (“the Building Codes Department will adopt a new energy code by December 31”) or by putting in place an ongoing process. In Maryland, for example, there is a permanent law that requires the state to adopt each new version of the national model code within 18 months of when it is published. In Washington, however, a state law passed in 2009 that requires that energy codes reduce building energy use by 70% by 2031. Like all legislation, there is a process of hearings, public commentary, and revisions followed by a formal vote, and ending with an approved bill being signed into law by the governor.

Regulatory Action: Each state that adopts statewide building codes has an agency charged with administering them. To begin the adoption of a new code, the state agency typically releases a public notice of its intent, which includes the name of the code being considered, and often convenes a selected group of representative stakeholder interests. In almost all cases, the public then has the opportunity to review the proposed code and formally submit proposals to modify it. These proposals are heard by and voted on by either agency staff or a committee composed of representative stakeholders (such as builders, tradespeople, architects and engineers, product manufacturers, and efficiency advocates) selected by the agency, the legislature or the governor. This phase largely mimics the national code development process (described in our previous post). The results of this process are then incorporated into a revised code that the agency staff or committee votes to formally adopt. The adoption process may require a variety of approvals from other state agencies, the legislature, or the executive branch to become official. Overall, the regulatory process is lengthier than legislative action but may allow greater opportunity for local citizen participation.

LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

Home-rule states vary in the authority given to local governments. The range of options are:

No statewide code is adopted and the local government can select any code (e.g. Colorado, Arizona, and Wyoming).
Statewide code is adopted and local government may adopt that code as-is or may make only strengthening amendments (e.g. Maryland, Texas, the Washington state commercial code).
Regardless of how it is done, the actual process mirrors the just-described regulatory process with the city council or mayor’s office either convening a committee or directing the local building department to adopt a new code. In all of the above cases – legislative, regulatory, or local – the adoption process stipulates an effective date for the new code, usually one to six months after the adoption date, which is the point at which newly permitted buildings need to comply with the requirements of the new code. The time between the adoption date and the effective date allows building officials and design and construction professionals to become familiar with the new requirements.

DOE’S ROLE: TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

How it works: The DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program is directed by statute to help states adopt the most recent version of the national model energy codes. DOE does not typically participate directly in state and local code adoption processes; instead, it provides technical assistance to states and local governments to aid their processes. This includes a variety of useful services, such as:

Analysis of code improvements and amendments, associated energy and cost savings, and economic and environmental benefits of upgrading to new codes.
Coordination with affected national, state, and local interests to encourage code adoption, including an annual energy codes conference to promote the sharing of information and dissemination of resources across states and other stakeholders.
Free compliance tools to assist with code implementation – REScheck™ and COMcheck™ – based on the most recent editions of the model codes. These programs are widely used by builders and code officials to check compliance and are explicitly referenced by some state codes.
Code Review and Analysis:  DOE reviews newly published model codes and issues guidance as to whether they will increase energy efficiency. Following this, DOE conducts a variety of energy and cost analyses to assess the savings associated with codes.  DOE also assists states in evaluating their codes, helping adapt the model codes to their individual needs, providing state-level savings analysis, and other forms of support to ensure codes are well-understood and cost-effective to home and business owners.  In addition, DOE receives and tracks state certifications indicating that they’ve reviewed and/or updated their codes based on the model energy codes, as directed by federal statute.

Tracking Energy Code Adoption: The DOE tracks energy code adoption and implementation across the United States and reports the status by state for both residential and commercial codes. This provides transparency and a better understanding of what is happening across the U.S. in building energy codes. Individual profiles include the impact codes within each state, the current code version and any state modifications, as well as information on the responsible government agencies and primary contacts for a particular area. 





For more information on DOE’s support for building energy codes and code adoption, visit the Building Energy Codes Program website at www.energycodes.gov. 
Zeljko Serdar, CCRES Team

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

New Year’s Resolutions - Energy

 


As the confetti from New Year’s Eve celebrations settles, it is only fitting that we prepare our 2024 New Year’s Resolutions. Our resolutions are often about a change we wish to see in ourselves, but what about making them around the change we wish to see in our homes and our world? Making energy efficiency and sustainability part of your New Year’s resolutions opens a pathway to savings, community resilience, and a safer, healthier Earth for future generations to call home. 


Consumption of oil, gas, and coal has been growing, and all three fuels hit new record highs in 2023. But, at the same time, renewable energy has been booming. Production from wind and solar power worldwide in 2023 was about 55% higher than in 2020.  

Nonetheless, it's worth noting that despite the recession fears that marked much of the last year, a U.S. recession hasn't materialized so far. Oil demand in the U.S. and globally has been quite good too. I want to point out that the oil prices aren't meager compared to the pre-pandemic years. Natural gas may be low and many U.S. gas-focused producers are generating negative cash flow, but many oil investments remain profitable. I wrote a lot throughout the year about the performance differentiators, but even in the onshore services space factors such as gas vs. oilier basin exposure, the proportion of private vs. public clients or fleets contracted long-term vs. participating in the spot market would matter a lot.


Turning to 2024, I will first lay out my macro expectations.

A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, the rise of blue hydrogen, and other trends to watch out for in the year ahead. Even though total global solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly over the coming decade, the pace of growth in annual installations will start to slow in 2024 compared to the rates seen in recent years. If our forecast for 2023 holds, the average annual growth in capacity installations over 2019-23 was 28%, including 56% growth in 2023. By contrast, annual average growth from 2024-28 will be about zero, including a few years with contractions. Growth in the global solar market is following a typical S-curve. Over the last few years, growth has climbed rapidly up the steepest part of the curve. Starting in 2024, the industry will be past the inflection point, characterized by a slower growth pattern. The global solar market is still many times larger than it was even a few years ago, but it’s natural for an industry to follow this growth path as it matures. 




Not every region is currently in the same place along the S-curve. Africa and the Middle East, for example, have a long way to go before they hit their growth inflection points. But two major markets are driving this global growth pattern: Asia Pacific, dominated by China, and Europe. 

No U.S. recession or at best a very modest one.

Continued deceleration in inflation but not down to the coveted 2%; probably down to 3% with some upside risk in 2024 H2;

The Fed and other central banks cut a bit, though, pushing up commodities.

Weaker dollar/stronger emerging markets. In the conclusions of the first Global Stocktake at COP28, countries acknowledged that the remaining global carbon budget is shrinking rapidly, with a risk of overshooting the 1.5 °C goal. That means hundreds of billion tonnes of carbon dioxide will need to be removed or captured and stored to get the world back on course for no more than 1.5 °C of warming by 2100. 


Geoengineering techniques can be used to enhance the carbon absorption capacity of the planet, and to reflect sunlight back into space, helping to keep the earth cool. For example, aerosols or other chemicals can be released a few kilometers up into the atmosphere, thus reflecting more sunlight away from the planet’s surface. I believe that in 2024, governments and scientific institutions will come together to study this fascinating subject more deeply and discuss the pros and cons of pursuing it. 

In the energy space, I expect an average of $70-$80 crude oil (OIL). Some push-pull between geopolitical risks and OPEC's spare capacity while U.S. shale production growth moderates. The ambitions for low-carbon hydrogen around the world, reflected in government policies and corporate project development, are quite remarkable. As is a 108 - mtpa global project pipeline that skews 80% to green hydrogen, made from electrolyzing water. However, the rate of project maturation for electrolyzer hydrogen will remain slow as developers struggle to overcome key obstacles. 




Two of the most important challenges that green hydrogen projects will face are achieving competitive costs and securing firm commitments from off-takers. Projects with credible counterparties and those targeting hydrogen as a feedstock in existing applications are most likely to move ahead. Those targeting new applications will struggle to achieve costs that compete with traditional fossil fuels. Blue hydrogen projects will also move slowly through the project development cycle, but more will achieve FID as they benefit from competitive economics and scaling more quickly.  

More downside for U.S. natural gas in 2024 H1 as we are already halfway through the winter with no major events so far.

Sustained international and offshore capex, with flat U.S. activity and single-digit growth in Canada. A quote often misattributed to Albert Einstein is that nuclear power is "one hell of a way to boil water". It was actually coined in 1980, after the Three Mile Island reactor accident that helped to turn the tide of public opinion against atomic energy. In 2024, however, nuclear power is set to win widespread support as a key solution to the world's energy crisis, for the first time in over half a century. Nuclear power has faced and still faces, challenges of public acceptability and economic competitiveness against renewables and fossil fuel generation. But it is the only reliable, dispatchable, small physical-and-material footprint, plug-and-play zero-carbon solution for power generation. 


That is all from me and the rest of the Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES) team for 2023. Many thanks to all of you for reading last year. Have a great holiday, and we will be back again and again in 2024. Happy working and trading in the new year, and feel free to share in the comments where you see the most upside going into 2024. Zeljko Serdar

Monday, December 18, 2023

Merry Christmas to all.




People blame God for everything but do nothing to do what He says. They get lost in their own worlds of work, home life, entertainment, etc, and when a bad thing happens … they blame God for it. Nobody reads The Book anymore, nobody has a clue what He requires of us. We abandoned God long ago, so why would He suddenly help us? By the way, these things have to happen, the prophecy speaks about it in the Bible. WORST times are yet to come. We are sinners and a punishment is upon us. So go ahead blame God.





In December of 1946, Strand Magazine published “A Christmas Sermon for Pagans” by C. S. Lewis. Anyone who has read Lewis extensively will recognize many of the themes within this short essay, primarily that the journey to Christianity for a post-Christian may quite possibly include a short passage through paganism (paganism as it really is, not as we sometimes foolishly imagine it). From the essay: “If the modern post-Christian view is wrong—and every day I find it harder to think it right—then there are three kinds of people in the world. (1) Those who are sick and don’t know it (the post-Christians). (2) Those who are sick and know it (Pagans). (3) Those who have found the cure. And if you start in the first class you must go through the second to reach the third. For (in a sense) all that Christianity adds to Paganism is the cure. It confirms the old belief that in this universe we are up against Living Power: that there is a real Right and that we have failed to obey it: that existence is beautiful and terrifying. It adds a wonder of which Paganism had not distinctly heard—that the Mighty One has come down to help us, to remove our guilt, to reconcile us”

To date, this piece has not been included in any published collection of Lewis essays. It was only discovered several years ago. I have a copy and thought all Lewisians would enjoy seeing the essay and reading a transcription (included below).

Merry Christmas to all. Thanks be to God that because of King Jesus, we need never lament that it is always winter and never Christmas. Rather, it is always Christmas, always Immanuel, always God-with-us, no matter what the weather.

“A Christmas Sermon for Pagans” by C. S. Lewis

Strand magazine, Vol. 112, Issue 672, December 1946 

Writing religion for sceptics has made C. S. Lewis a best-seller. His books on Christianity—chief among them “The Screwtape Letters”—sell better, and read more easily, than most crime stories. This sermon is a characteristic piece of writing by the Oxford don who has become the most entertaining missionary of our time.

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When I was asked to write a Christmas sermon for Pagans I accepted the job lightheartedly enough: but now that I sit down to tackle it I discover a difficulty. Are there any Pagans in England for me to write to?

I know that people keep on telling us that this country is relapsing into Paganism. But they only mean it is ceasing to be Christian. And is that at all the same thing? Let us remember what a Pagan or Heathen (I use the words interchangeably) really was.

A “Heathen” meant a man who lived out on the heath, out in the wilds. A “Pagan” meant a man who lived in a Pagus or small village. Both words, in fact, meant a “rustic” or “yokel.” They date from the time when the larger towns of the Roman Empire were already Christianised, but the old Nature religions still lingered in the country. Pagans or Heathens were the backward people in the remote districts who had not yet been converted, who were still pre-Christian.

To say that modern people who have drifted away from Christianity are Pagans is to suggest that a post-Christian man is the same as a pre-Christian man. And that is like thinking that a woman who has lost her husband is the same sort of person as an unmarried girl: or that a street where the houses have been knocked down is the same as a field where no house has yet been built. The ruined street and the unbuilt field are alike in one respect: namely that neither will keep you dry if it rains. But they are different in every other respect. Rubble, dust, broken bottles, old bedsteads and stray cats are very different from grass, thyme, clover, buttercups and a lark singing overhead.

Now the real Pagan differed from the post-Christian in the following ways. Firstly, he was religious. From the Christian point of view he was indeed too religious by half. He was full of reverence. To him the earth was holy, the woods and waters were alive. His agriculture was a ritual as well as a technique. And secondly, he believed in what we now call an “Objective” Right or Wrong. That is, he thought the distinction between pious and impious acts was something which existed independently of human opinions: something like the multiplication table which Man had not invented but had found to be true and which (like the multiplication table) he had better take notice of. The gods would punish him if he did not.

To be sure, by Christian standards, his list of “Right” or “Wrong” acts was rather a muddled one. He thought (and the Christians agreed) that the gods would punish him for setting the dogs on a beggar who came to his door or for striking his father: but he also thought they would punish him for turning his face to the wrong point of the compass when he began ploughing. But though his code included some fantastic sins and duties, it got in most of the real ones.

And this leads us to the third great difference between a Pagan and a post-Christian man. Believing in a real Right and Wrong means finding out that you are not very good. The Pagan code may have been on some points a low one: but it was too high for the Pagan to live up to. Hence a Pagan, though in many ways merrier than a modern, had a deep sadness. When he asked himself what was wrong with the world he did not immediately reply, “the social system,” or “our allies,” or “education.” It occurred to him that he himself might be one of the things that was wrong with the world. He knew he had sinned. And the terrible thing was that he thought the gods made no difference between voluntary and involuntary sins. You might get into their bad books by mere accident, and once in, it was very hard to get out of them. And the Pagan dealt with this situation in a rather silly way. His religion was a mass of ceremonies (sacrifices, purifications, etc.) which were supposed to take away guilt. But they never quite succeeded. His conscience was not at ease.

Now the post-Christian view which is gradually coming into existence—it is complete already in some people and still incomplete in others—is quite different. According to it Nature is not a live thing to be reverenced: it is a kind of machine for us to exploit. There is no objective Right or Wrong: each race or class can invent its own code or “ideology” just as it pleases. And whatever may be amiss with the world, it is certainly not we, not the ordinary people; it is up to God (if, after all, He should happen to exist), or to Government or to Education, to give us what we want. They are the shop, we are the customers: and “the customer is always right.”

Now if the post-Christian view is the correct one, then we have indeed waked from a nightmare. The old fear, the old reverence, the old restraints—how delightful to have waked up into freedom, to be responsible to no one, to be utterly and absolutely our own masters! We have, of course, lost some fun. A universe of colourless electrons (which is presently going to run down and annihilate all organic life everywhere and forever) is, perhaps, a little dreary compared with the earth-mother and the sky-father, the wood nymphs and the water nymphs, chaste Diana riding the night sky and homely Vesta flickering on the hearth. But one can’t have everything, and there are always the flicks and the radio: if the new view is correct, it has very solid advantages. 

But is it? And if so, why are things not going better? What do you make of the present threat of world famine? We know now that it is not entirely due to the war. From country after country comes the same story of failing harvests: even the whales have less oil. Can it be that Nature (or something behind Nature) is not simply a machine that we can do what we like with?—that she is hitting back?

Waive that point. Suppose she is only a machine and that we are free to master her at our pleasure. Have you not begun to see that Man’s conquest of Nature is really Man’s conquest of Man? That every power wrested from Nature is used by some men over other men? Men are the victims, not the conquerors in this struggle: each new victory “over Nature” yields new means of propaganda to enslave them, new weapons to kill them, new power for the State and new weakness for the citizen, new contraceptives to keep men from being born at all.

As for the ideologies, the new invented Wrongs and Rights, does no one see the catch? If there is no real Wrong and Right, nothing good or bad in itself, none of these ideologies can be better or worse than another. For a better moral code can only mean one which comes nearer to some real or absolute code. One map of New York can be better than another only if there is a real New York for it to be truer to. If there is no objective standard, then our choice between one ideology and another becomes a matter of arbitrary taste. Our battle for democratic ideals against Nazi ideals has been a waste of time, because the one is no better than the other. Nor can there ever be any real improvement or deterioration: if there is no real goal you can’t get either nearer to it or farther from it. In fact, there is no real reason for doing anything at all.

It looks to me, neighbours, as though we shall have to set about becoming true Pagans if only as a preliminary to becoming Christians. I don’t mean that we should begin leaving little bits of bread under the tree at the end of the garden as an offering to the Dryad. I don’t mean that we should dance to Dionysus across Hampstead Heath (though perhaps a little more solemn or ecstatic gaiety and a little less commercialised “amusement” might make our holidays better than they now are). I don’t even mean (though I do very much wish) that we should recover that sympathy with nature, that religious attitude to the family, and that appetite for beauty which the better Pagans had. Perhaps what I do mean is best put like this.

If the modern post-Christian view is wrong—and every day I find it harder to think it right—then there are three kinds of people in the world. (1) Those who are sick and don’t know it (the post-Christians). (2) Those who are sick and know it (Pagans). (3) Those who have found the cure. And if you start in the first class you must go through the second to reach the third. For (in a sense) all that Christianity adds to Paganism is the cure. It confirms the old belief that in this universe we are up against Living Power: that there is a real Right and that we have failed to obey it: that existence is beautiful and terrifying. It adds a wonder of which Paganism had not distinctly heard—that the Mighty One has come down to help us, to remove our guilt, to reconcile us.

All of the world men and women will meet on December 25th to do what is a very old-fashioned and, if you like, a very Pagan thing—to sing and feast because a God has been born. You are uncertain whether it is more than a myth. Well if it is, then our last hope is gone. But is the opposite explanation not worth trying?

Who knows but that here, and here alone, lies your way back not only to Heaven, but to Earth too, and to the great human family whose oldest hopes are confirmed by this story that does not die?

Merry Christmas.